[Forum SIS] Seminario Giuliana Cortese (Università di Padova) - 28/10/2014

[Giacomo Aletti]

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scusandomi per invii multipli.
Cordialmente,
Giacomo Aletti

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Si comunica che in data
28 Ottobre 2014, ore 11, presso la Sala di Rappresentanza del
Dipartimento di Matematica dell'Università degli Studi di Milano

La dott.ssa Giuliana Cortese, del dipartimento di Statistica
dell'Università di Padova, terrà un seminario dal titolo

"Dynamic predictions via competing risks regression models with
application to chemotherapy in breast cancer"


Abstract
In breast cancer, the risk for cardiotoxicity due to chemotherapy
typically increases with the cumulative dose of treatment over time.
Therefore, it is of interest to predict the cumulative risk for
cardiotoxicity in a dynamic way, while controlling the competing risk
for mortality. For this purpose, we consider a competing risks
regression model with two events, cardiotoxicity and death. A second
aim is to predict optimal cumulative doses along a given treatment
time that keep the cumulative risk for cardiotoxicity below a certain
threshold (e.g. <5%).

We face these prediction problems with different regression models for
competing risks, accounting for all the time-dependent information in
the data. For example, some covariates are assumed to have
time-varying effects, and the cumulative dose was included as
(internal) time-dependent covariate into the models. A landmark
analysis was used to obtain dynamic predictions.

In this applied context, we compare the competing risks approach based
on cause-specific hazards and the direct regression models that allow
finding a one-to-one relationship between cumulative risks and
covariates. These models were then employed to predict optimal
cumulative doses at a sequence of landmark time points.

To control and correct also for the increased risk of dying, we
finally predict optimal cumulative doses when a illness-death model is
considered.
Implementation in R is also discussed.



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Giacomo Aletti, Associate Professor

ADAMSS Centre (ex MIRIAM)
Advanced  Applied Mathematical  and Statistical Sciences

Department of Mathematics (www.matematica.unimi.it)
Via Saldini, 50
20133 Milano, Italy
Tel: +39-02-503.16158
Fax:+39-02-503.16090
Cell: +39-340-9739142