[Forum SIS] Seminario Fan LI

[Matteo Ruggiero]

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STATISTICS SEMINARS  -  COLLEGIO CARLO ALBERTO
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Venerdi' 12 Aprile 2013, alle ore 12:00, presso la sala rossa del 
Collegio Carlo Alberto, Moncalieri (TO), si terra' il seguente seminario:


FAN LI (Duke University)
	
BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGNS 
WITH APPLICATION TO ITALIAN UNIVERSITY GRANTS EVALUATIONS


Abstract:
Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are usually interpreted as local 
randomized experiments: A RD design can be considered as though 
it were a randomized experiment for units with a realized value of a 
 so-called forcing variable falling immediately around a pre-fixed 
 threshold. Motivated from the evaluation of Italian university grants, 
 we consider a fuzzy RD where the receipt of the treatment is based 
on eligibility criteria and a voluntary application status: Only subjects 
 who both meet eligibility criteria and apply for participating in the 
 treatment can receive the treatment. The application status provides 
 valuable information on the reasons underlying the receipt of the 
 treatment, which is generally unknown to the researcher, and we show
 how to capitalize on it. We propose a probabilistic formulation of the 
 assignment mechanism and develop a Bayesian approach to draw 
inferences for the causal effects around the threshold. Multivariate 
outcomes are utilized to further sharpen the analysis. The method is 
applied to evaluate the effects of Italian university grants on student 
dropout and academic performances. Posterior predictive model 
checks are also conducted to validate the analysis.
This is a joint work with Alessandra Mattei and Fabrizia Mealli.



Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.

Il seminario e' organizzato dalla "de Castro" Statistics Initiative
(http://www.carloalberto.org/stats) in collaborazione con il 
Collegio Carlo Alberto.
Il programma dei seminari puo' essere consultato alla pagina
http://www.carloalberto.org/events/seminars/statistics/


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Matteo Ruggiero
University of Torino & Collegio Carlo Alberto
http://web.econ.unito.it/ruggiero

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