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seminario F. Bartolucci


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                 AVVISO DI SEMINARIO
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Giovedì 21 aprile alle ore 15:00, presso il Dipartimento di Economia Politica e 
Metodi Quantitativi dell'Università di Pavia, via S. Felice 7, aula del 
Consiglio di Facoltà (primo piano)

                     FRANCESCO BARTOLUCCI
                    Università di Perugia

terrà il seminario
 
        A CLASS OF LATENT MARGINAL MODELS FOR CAPTURE-RECAPTURE 
                  DATA WITH CONTINUOUS COVARIATES 

ABSTRACT. We introduce a new class of finite mixture models for the
 analysis of capture recapture data when continuous covariates are
 available. The present approach exploits recent advances in marginal
 parameterizations to model simultaneously and conditionally on
 individual covariates, the size of the latent classes, the marginal
 probabilities of being captured by each list given the latent and
 possible higher order marginal interactions among lists conditionally
 on the latent. An EM algorithm for ML estimation is described and an
 expression for the expected information matrix of the observed data
 is derived. In addition, a new method for computing confidence
 interval for the size of the population with given covariate
 configurations is proposed and its asymptotic properties are derived.
 The analysis of a data set based on the Tuscany Cancer Registry is
 used as an illustration of the method.

 Keywords: Conditional inference; Latent class model; Marginal
 parameterization; Profile confidence intervals; Rasch model. 



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