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AVVISO di SEMINARIO: Rettifica
Per un mio errore materiale, il precedente messaggio mancava dell'indirizzo
del luogo dove si teneva il seminario. Mi scuso per il disturbo arrecatovi
e vi invio il messaggio corretto.
Cordialmente,
Carlo Gaetan
ESTIMATING HEALTH EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTION:
Statistical Challenges, Findings, and Policy Implications
tenuto da
FRANCESCA DOMINICI
Department of Biostatistics
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
14 novembre 2002 - ore 14.30
15 novembre 2002 - ore 10.30
Aula CUCCONI
Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche
Universita' di Padova
via Battisti, 241
35121 -PADOVA
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** ABSTRACT **
Evidence from time series studies of air pollution and health is
central to major policy decisions concerning the risk of death
associated with air pollution exposure. The nature and characteristics of
time series data make risk estimation challenging, requiring
development of complex statistical methods able to detect effects that
are very small relative to the combined effects of confounders and
residual variation.
Using the National Mortality Morbidity Air Pollution Study, which
includes time series data from the 90 largest US locations for the period
1987-1994, we discuss: parametric versus semi-parametric approaches for
estimating city-specific relative risks; hierarchical models for
synthesizing city-specific estimates, and estimation of the
exposure-response relation between air pollution and mortality.
We report national-level estimates of the health effects of air
pollution, review their sensitivity to model choice and prior
distributions and discuss policy implications.
Sources of model uncertainty call for a systematic assessment of model
choice and for development of new methods. Importantly, the weight given
by this scientific evidence in setting policy requires a level of
confidence in findings that is difficult to attain in the small
effects/many potential confounders context, regardless of the
sophistication of the statistical approach.
joint work with: Trevor Hastie, Scott L. Zeger, Aidan McDermott, Jonathan
M. Samet
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Per informazioni
Patrizia Piacentini
Segreteria Organizzativa
segrorg@stat.unipd.it