[Forum SIS] UNIBO Statistics Seminars

[Silvia Cagnone]

We are glad to announce the following Statistics Seminar:



Thursday, April 15, 4.00 p.m.
Linda Altieri
 University of Bologna
Continuous time-interaction processes for population size estimation, with an application to the number of drug dealers in Italy



Abstract
This work introduces a general time-interaction point process where the occurrence of an event can increase (self-excitement) or reduce (self-correction) the probability of future events. Self-excitement and self-correction are allowed to be triggered by the same event, at different time scales; other effects such as covariates, unobserved heterogeneity and temporal dependence are also allowed in the model. We focus on capture-recapture data, as our work is motivated by an original example where we need to estimate the total number of drug dealers in Italy. We derive a conditional likelihood formulation where only subjects with at least one observation are involved in the inference process, with the aim of obtaining continuous-time population size estimators. A simulation study illustrates the validity of our approach over a variety of scenarios, in comparison to a selection of the existing methods for population size estimation, as a support for the conclusions on our real data application.
Co-authors: Alessio Farcomeni (b), Danilo Alunni-Fegatelli (c)

(b)    Faculty of Economics, University of Rome Tor Vergata

(c)     Department of Public Health and Infectious Disease, University of Rome La Sapienza

Link for attending the event: Fai clic qui per partecipare alla riunione<https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_MGUyN2UxNWQtYTRmMC00NWE1LTkyZjAtMTA3ODc4ZjNhMDAy%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%22e99647dc-1b08-454a-bf8c-699181b389ab%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%227e2f9ad3-2ed9-4de5-92d7-0410f174dfda%22%7d>

Contact person: Daniela Cocchi




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