[Forum SIS] ABS2019 -- Summer school on BAYESIAN DEMOGRAPHY

[Raffaele Argiento]

2019 ABS Summer School on Bayesian Demography (Como, Italy)

We are glad to announce that the 2019 Applied Bayesian Statistics Summer
School (16th edition) will be held in the magnificent Villa del Grumello,
Como (Italy) along the Lake Como shore.



BAYESIAN DEMOGRAPHY
24-28 June, 2019
Lecturers: Adrian Raftery and Hana Sevcikova
University of Washington, Seattle, USA

Further details are provided below.

Guido Consonni and Fabrizio Ruggeri
ABS19 Directors
Raffaele Argiento
ABS19 Executive Director




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**              ABS19               **
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Applied Bayesian Statistics School
BAYESIAN DEMOGRAPHY
Villa del Grumello, Como, Italy
24-28 June, 2019


Lecturers:
- Adrian Raftery,  The Boeing International Professor of Statistics and
Sociology
- Hana Sevcikova,  Senior Research Scientist

Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, Center for Studies in
Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, USA

The school webpage is
http://web.mi.imati.cnr.it/conferences/abs19/index.html

Registration is now open. Please note that the conference room allows
only for a very limited number of participants.

COURSE OUTLINE

Population projections have until recently usually been done
deterministically. Recently, the United Nation Population Division adopted
a probabilistic  approach to project fertility, mortality and population
for all countries. In this approach, the total fertility rate and female
and male life expectancy at birth are projected using Bayesian hierarchical
models estimated via Markov Chain Monte Carlo. They are then combined with
a cohort component model, which yields probabilistic projection for any
quantity of interest. The methodology is implemented in a suite of R
packages, which has been used by the UN analysts to produce the most recent
revision of the World Population Prospects.

This course will teach the theory and practice of Bayesian probabilistic
projections. Ideas of the Bayesian hierarchical modeling for the three main
components of population change, fertility, mortality and migration, will
be explained. In hands-on exercises, students will become familiar with the
functionality of the R packages.


PRACTICAL INFORMATION
The school will replicate the successful format of the previous years, and
will feature lectures and practical sessions, as well as participants'
talks. It will start on Monday after lunch and end on Friday before lunch;
Wednesday afternoon is free.

Accommodation is available either at the Villa guesthouse or in
downtown hotels (info will appear soon on the website). Como can be easily
reached by train from Milan and its airports. More details are available on
the website.

-- 

Dr. Raffaele Argiento

University of Torino and Collegio Carlo Alberto

www.raffaeleargiento.it
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