[Forum SIS] Seminario di Paul Wu presso CNR IMATI Milano (31/5i - ore 15)

[fabrizio a mi.imati.cnr.it]

Il Dott. Paul Wu (Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane,
Australia) terra' un seminario il 31 Maggio 2018 alle ore 15 
presso il CNR IMATI di Milano in Via Alfonso Corti 12 (Aula B) su:

Non-homogeneous Inference Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks: Minimising
the Impact of Dredging on Seagrass Ecosystems 

Il Dott. Wu e' uno dei due relatori, insieme alla Prof.ssa Kerrie
Mengersen (QUT), della scuola estiva ABS18 (Applied Bayesian Statistics)
su BAYESIAN STATISTICAL MODELLING AND ANALYSIS IN SPORT che si terra' 
la prossima settimana a Como e per cui sono ancora disponibili alcuni
posti:

http://www.mi.imati.cnr.it/conferences/abs18/index.html

Allego il riassunto della presentazione del Dott. Wu.

Cordiali saluti

Fabrizio Ruggeri
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It is challenging to predict the dynamic response of a complex system to
stressors due to interdependencies and interactions between multiple
system components under uncertainty. Potentially, the behaviour of the
system itself can change over time as a result of exogeneous inputs
and/or changes to the system state. For instance, an ecosystem that has
already been subjected to stress may respond differently to further
stresses, such as a reduced ability to resist and recover. Such changing
dynamics are characteristic of non-homogeneous complex systems. 

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide an approach for predictive,
whole-of-systems modelling of complex systems under uncertainty. Here,
we discuss an approach to non-homogeneous inference with DBNs. The
method enables dynamic updates of DBN parameters and inference of
posterior marginal probabilities by propagating the effect of
observations forwards in time. It also enables approximate inference for
forwards-backwards inference. The approach is demonstrated on evaluating
dredging impacts on seagrass ecosystems, with discussion on broader
application to other domains.

-- 
Fabrizio Ruggeri                    fabrizio AT mi.imati.cnr.it
CNR IMATI                           tel +39 0223699532
Via Bassini 15                      fax +39 0223699538
I-20133 Milano (Italy)              web.mi.imati.cnr.it/fabrizio