[Forum SIS] Dec statistics seminar - January 19th

[Raffaella Piccarreta]

We are glad to announce the next: 


DEC - Statistics Seminars 

Thursday, January 19th 


Bocconi University, 
Room 3-E4-SR03 
Via Rontgen 1 - 3rd floor 

Time: 12:30 pm 



Bruno Sansó 
(University of California Santa Cruz) 

Quantifying the Uncertainty in Climate Model Simulations 

Abstract: 
A key component in understanding and modeling the Earth's climate is a rigorous and comprehensive quantification of its relevant uncertainties. Together with sophisticated physical models, modern statistical methodology is needed to describe multiple climate processes over different spatial and temporal scales. In particular, powerful statistical methods are needed to handle large amounts of data and extract information on the complexities of the climate system. In addition, there are a number of uncertainties that affect the simulations from a climate model. Among them: variability of the initial conditions; variability and lack of knowledge for some of the inputs; model structure. In this talk I will review a number of problems where Bayesian hierarchical models are used to tackle climate model uncertainty quantification. This include probabilistic calibration of the parameters of an intermediate complexity model, as well as unified forecasting from ensembles of climate model simulation at different resolutions and time horizons. These examples can be seen as a proxy for the use, in general settings, of statistical tools to quantify the uncertainty inherent in simulations of complex systems. 


The DEC statistics seminars schedule is available at http://www.unibocconi.eu/statseminar 


Kind regards, 
Raffaella Piccarreta and Isadora Antoniano 



ATTENTION: 

If you are a guest and you do not have a Bocconi ID Card to access to the Bocconi Buildings, please confirm your participation by sending an email to simona.gagino a unibocconi.it 
In addition, we suggest to print, fill out and send the attached form (to give your consent to personal data handling) via email to the same address. In this way, the check-in procedure at the entrance will be faster and easier. 



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Raffaella Piccarreta 
Associate Professor - Statistics 
DEC - Department of Decision Sciences, 
Universita' L.Bocconi, via Guglielmo Röntgen 1 (3rd floor, room D1-09). 20136, Milano. 
email: piccarreta a unibocconi.it 
tel. +39-02-58365659 / fax +39-02-58365630 

Web page (ENGLISH VERSION): http://faculty.unibocconi.eu/raffaellapiccarreta/ 
(ITALIAN VERSION): http://faculty.unibocconi.it/raffaellapiccarreta/ 
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