[Forum SIS] seminario al CNR-IMATI

[Antonella Bodini]

Si ricorda che  venerdi' 19 dicembre alle ore 11 presso la sede di
Milano dell'IMATI,
via Bassini 15, nella sala pentagonale al secondo piano, Ting WANG
(University of Otago, New Zealand)
terra' il seminario

*Modelling of seismic activity using Markov-modulated Hawkes process and
its extensions*

Earthquakes are processes in which the internal workings are only
observed indirectly, although the final effects are all too observable!
Hidden Markov models (HMMs, a general statistical framework for
modelling partially observed systems) are an intuitively attractive idea
for analysing seismicity.
I will introduce the Markov-modulated Hawkes process that we developed
for investigating long-term patterns in seismicity rate. The catalogue
of the Landers earthquake sequence, which included multiple mainshocks,
was used as a case study. I will show how this model captures the cyclic
parent-generating-offspring feature of the temporal behaviour of
earthquakes. I will also discuss our current work on extending this
temporal model by including spatial variation of the seismic activity
and the earthquake magnitude. Our aim is to categorize spatiotemporal
seismic hazards holistically, using the entire earthquake record in a
selected region to identify patterns correlated with subsequent large
earthquakes, rather than the traditional way of hunting for individual
foreshocks.

Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.

-- 
Dott. Antonella Bodini 					
CNR-Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche					
Via Bassini 15, 20133 Milano (Italy)	  		  					

tel   +39 02 23699524
fax   +39 02 23699538 
http://www.mi.imati.cnr.it/~anto/
                          

-------------- parte successiva --------------
Un allegato HTML è stato rimosso...
URL: <http://www.stat.unipg.it/pipermail/sis/attachments/20141215/a571ca54/attachment.html>