[Forum SIS] Politecnico di Milano - Seminario S. Guillas, UCL

[Laura Sangalli]

Si avvisa che in data 10-05-2013, alle ore 14:30 precise,
presso l'Aula del Consiglio VII piano - Dipartimento di Matematica, 
Politecnico di Milano,
nell'ambito delle iniziative MOX e del progetto FIRB Futuro in Ricerca 
SNAPLE (http://mox.polimi.it/users/sangalli/firbSNAPLE.html), si 
svolgerà il seguente seminario:

Relatore:
Serge Guillas
University College London

Titolo:
Uncertainty Quantification of geophysical models

Abstract:
In this talk, we show various strategies for the calibration and 
emulation of simulators having uncertain inputs and internal parameters, 
with applications to CFD, tsunami wave modelling, simulated earthquakes 
catalogues and climate models. We first illustrate fully Bayesian 
calibration and emulation techniques on the k-epsilon turbulence CFD 
model. For the landslide-generated tsunami model, a fast surrogate is 
provided by the outer product emulator. It can enable either real-time 
warnings according to uncertain speed, position and shape of the 
landslide, or full uncertainty quantification for hazard assessment. We 
also show some new realistic simulation and hazard assessment of 
earthquake-generated tsunami risk in Cascadia (Western Canada and USA), 
using VOLNA. VOLNA is a solver of nonlinear shallow water equations on 
unstructured meshes that is now accelerated on the GPU system Emerald. 
As for the emulation of earthquake catalogues, stochasticity of the 
outputs is taken into account trough the distribution of inter-events 
times, in the framework of non-extensive statistical physics. Finally, 
enhancements in terms of sequential design of experiments are shown for 
the climate model CESM, where points in the design are chosen according 
to novel adaptive strategies.


Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.

Cordiali saluti,
Laura Sangalli


-- 
Laura Maria Sangalli
MOX - Dipartimento di Matematica
Politecnico di Milano
Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32
20133 Milano - Italy
tel: +39 02 2399 4554
fax: +39 02 2399 4568
email: laura.sangalli at polimi.it
url: http://mox.polimi.it/~sangalli