[Forum SIS] Seminar

[Simone Padoan]

Dear All,

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We are glad to announce the following talk
Thursday, Februay 7, 2013, 12.30, Room 3-E4-SR03
Bocconi University, via Roentgen 1, Milan. 
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by Yakov Nikitin, Leningrad University, Russia.

Titel:
"Testing of Exponentiality with Application to Historic Data."
 
Abstract: 
Testing of exponentiality is very important in Probability and  Statistics, especially in reliability theory, queueing theory and survival analysis. First tests of exponentiality appeared in 1946 - 1950 and pertained to Greenwood, Moran and Sherman. Later appeared hundreds of papers and numerous surveys on the subject, even several handbooks on exponential distribution. We classify the numerous exponentiality tests into several groups and calculate (or cite) their efficiency properties against standard alternatives.
 
Next we apply the exponentiality tests to confirm or disprove the exponential character of some historical data. It is well-known that the lifetime of human beings cannot be exponentially distributed as humans are aging; hence their lifetimes have an increasing failure rate. But some authors came to the surprising conclusion that the lengths of reign for many historical  rulers, kings, governors, etc. are in agreement with exponential distribution. We discuss this observation for some dynasties beginning by kings of Judea and Israel (according to the Bible) and by Roman emperors. We also touch upon the scantily explored question concerning the duration of historical empires and some similar historical data.

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Dr. Simone Padoan, PhD.
Assistant Professor

Department of Decision Sciences
Bocconi University of Milan
via Roentgen, 1 20136 Milano - Italy
tel. +39 02 5836 5690
Email: simone.padoan a unibocconi.it
Webpage: http://faculty.unibocconi.it/simonepadoan
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