Ciclo di seminari prof. Lad - DSSM Palermo

[Gianfranco Lovison <lovison@unipa.it>]

Nel quadro delle attivitą didattiche del Dottorato di Ricerca in
Statistica di Palermo, dal 13 al 17 giugno p.v. presso il Complesso Didattico
di viale delle Scienze, il prof. Frank Lad, del Dipartimento di
Matematica e Statistica dell'Universitą di Canterbury, Nuova Zelanda,
terrą un ciclo di seminari con il seguente programma:

Lecture 1. (Aula 12, 13.06.2005, h. 10.30-12.30)
Prevision, Coherence, The Fundamental theorem of prevision -- its
computational and geometrical representation and its mode of
application.

Lecture 2. (Aula 10,  14.06.2005, h. 10.30-12.30)
Exchangeabilty -- the basis for its judgment, its algebraical and
geometrical representation, and some extensions.

Lecture 3. (Aula 12, 15.06.2005, h. 10.30-12.30)
On the Calibration of probabilities and its relation to the application
of proper scoring rules.

Lecture 4. (Aula 10, 16.06.2005, h. 10.30-12.30)
Interpersonal subjective probabilities ­ how to use probability
assertions of experts to make coherent inferences.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Il giorno 17 giugno 2005 (Aula Biblioteca, II piano DSSM) ,
il prof. Lad terrą infine un seminario nell'ambito del
ciclo di seminari interni del Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche e Matematiche
"S.Vianelli",  dal titolo:
"How Big is your Mathematics? ...Reassessing the accuracy rates of
median decision procedures."

Abstract

This will be a seminar for those following the course and will also be
directed to any interested faculty members as a public seminar. It will
begin with a simple problem involving the draw of balls from an urn ...and
it will show in an amusing way how the standard solution to the problem is
mistaken and is much too small! The fundamental theorem of prevision
provides the basis for the correct and largest solution. Then a real
problem concerning the diagnosis of asbestosis via X-rays will be
presented that provides a real computational example of the developments
in the first two lectures.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Frank Lad is Research Professor of Mathematics and Statistics at the
University of Canterbury. He has been Research Fellow at the Population
Council, New York City, and Visiting Scholar at the State University of
New York, Albany. His research activity has considered operational
subjective statistical methods, applied statistics, probability and
forecasting. He has published a major monograph, Operational Subjective
Statistical Methods: a Mathematical, Philosophical and Historical
Introduction (New York, Wiley, 1996). He has also published many
scholarly papers in journals such as American Statistician, Annals of
Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence, British Journal for the
Philosophy of Science, Journal of Statistical Computation and
Simulation, Science and Society, Statistica.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gianfranco Lovison

_________________________________________________________________________

Gianfranco Lovison
Professore Ordinario di Statistica
Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche e Matematiche "S. Vianelli"
Universitą di Palermo
tel       091 6626237
fax      091 485726
e-mail lovison@unipa.it



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