[Forum SIS] Annuncio seminario - 28 gennaio ore 14:00 - Alessio Farcomeni

[Anna Paganoni]

Buongiorno a tutti,

ricordo il seguente Seminario MOX on-line di giovedì organizzato dal 
gruppo Stat a MOX.

28.1, ore 14:00

Link: https://mox.polimi.it/elenco-seminari/?id_evento=2001&t=763721

Speaker: Alessio Farcomeni, Università Roma Tor Vergata

Titolo: Nowcasting the Italian epidemic outbreak of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract: In the talk, we briefly discuss the main epidemiological 
features of SARS-CoV-2 one year into the pandemic, giving also a short 
account of the public data available for Italy and of the main limits of 
lay analyses.
We then discuss an accurate method for short-term forecasting ICU 
occupancy at local level. Our approach is based on an optimal ensemble 
of two simple methods: a generalized linear mixed regression model which 
pools information over different areas, and an area-specific 
non-stationary integer autoregressive methodology. Optimal weights are 
estimated using a leave-last-out rationale.
Daily predictions between February 24th and November, 27th 2020 have a 
median error of 3 beds (third quartile: 8) at regional level, with 
coverage of 99% prediction intervals that exceeds the nominal one.
Finally we present a different method based on a modified non-linear GLM 
for each indicator, including the potential effect of exogenous 
variables, based on appropriate distributional assumptions and a 
logistic-type growth curve. This allows us to accurately predict 
important characteristics of the epidemic (e.g., peak time and height).
Based on joint works with Pierfrancesco Alaimo di Loro, Fabio Divino, 
Giovanna Jona Lasinio, Gianfranco Lovison, Antonello Maruotti, Marco 
Mingione

Contatto: francesca.ieva a polimi.it

Buona giornata
Anna Maria Paganoni

-- 
Anna Maria Paganoni
MOX - Modeling and Scientific Computing
Dipartimento di Matematica "F. Brioschi"
Politecnico di Milano
Piazza Leonardo da Vinci, 32
I-20133 Milano - Italy
tel. +39 02 2399 4574
fax. +39 02 2399 4568
e.mail: anna.paganoni a polimi.it