[Forum SIS] Seminario David Firth 20 Aprile a Ca' Foscari

[Ilaria Prosdocimi]

Cari colleghi e colleghe,

Con grande piacere, vi segnalo il prossimo seminario del gruppo Statistica
al DAIS, Ca' Foscari (tutti i futuri seminari sono elencati alla pagina del
gruppo https://www.unive.it/pag/16818):

Data: 20 Aprile 2021 - ore 14:00-15:00
Titolo: Schedule-adjusted league tables during the football season
Relatore: David Firth (University of Warwick)

Il seminario si potrà seguire tramite la piattaforma Zoom:
https://unive.zoom.us/j/82776377762
Meeting ID: 827 7637 7762 - Passcode: SanMarco1

Abstract:
In this talk I will show how to construct a better football league table
than the official ranking based on accumulated points to date.  The aim of
this work is (only) to produce a more informative representation of how
teams currently stand, based on their match results to date in the current
season; it is emphatically not about prediction.  A more informative league
table is one that takes proper account of "schedule strength" differences,
i.e., differing numbers of matches played by each team (home and away), and
differing average standings of the opponents that each team has faced.

This work extends previous "retrodictive" use of Bradley-Terry models and
their generalizations, specifically to handle 3 points for a win, and also
to incorporate home/away effects coherently without assuming homogeneity
across teams.  Playing records that are 100% or 0%, which can be
problematic in standard Bradley-Terry approaches, are incorporated in a
simple way without the need for a regularizing penalty on the likelihood. A
maximum-entropy argument shows how the method developed here is the
mathematically "best" way to account for schedule strength in a football
league table.

Illustrations will be from the English Premier League, and the Italian
Serie A.

Cordiali saluti

Ilaria Prosdocimi

----
Ilaria Prosdocimi
Assistant Professor in Statistics
Ca' Foscari University of Venice
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistic
prosdocimi.ilaria a gmail.com
ilaria.prosdocimi a unive.it
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