[Forum SIS] Seminario: Gentry White su Proliferation of Terrorism Via Diffusion and Contagion

[Fabrizio Ruggeri]

Venerdi 7 giugno alle 15.00, presso il CNR-IMATI, in via A. Corti, 12,
Milano, Aula B, si terrà il seguente seminario:

Relatore: Gentry White, Queensland University of Technology, Australia

Titolo: Modelling the Proliferation of Terrorism Via Diffusion and Contagion

Riassunto: The proliferation of terrorism is a serious concern for national 
and international security as an existential threat to Western liberal 
democracies. Understanding and effectively modelling the proliferation of 
terrorism provides useful insight into formulating effective responses. 
Results from a current paper in submission demonstrates a mathematical model 
capturing the theoretical constructs of contagion and diffusion based on a 
Hawkes self-exciting process that explains the spread of terrorist activity. 
This model is used to analyse data from the Global Terrorism Database from 
2000–2016 for Afghanistan, Iraq, and Israel. Results show that the model 
identifies patterns in the diffusion and contagion processes that align 
with and provide insight into contemporary events.
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Fabrizio Ruggeri                    fabrizio AT mi.imati.cnr.it
CNR IMATI                           tel +39 0223699532
Via Bassini 15                      fax +39 0223699538
I-20133 Milano (Italy)              web.mi.imati.cnr.it/fabrizio