[Forum SIS] Seminario DiSIA: Raffaele Grotti

[Raffaele Guetto]

DiSIA (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G.
Parenti")
Università di Firenze

- PROSSIMO SEMINARIO -

22 Gennaio 2019 ore 12.00

RAFFAELE GROTTI (European University Institute) terrà il seguente
seminario:  

Heterogeneity in dynamics of risk accumulation: the case of unemployment

The paper aims at providing a contribution to the study of socioeconomic
risks. It studies different mechanisms that account for the stickiness
of the unemployment condition and, relatedly, for the longitudinal
accumulation of unemployment experiences. In particular, the paper
disentangles two mechanisms: 'genuine state dependence' dynamics and
unobserved characteristics at the individual level; and accounts both
for their relative weight and for their possible interplay in shaping
the accumulation of unemployment risks over time. 

Dynamics of accumulation are investigated, showing their distribution
among different workforce segments defined both in terms of observable
and unobservable characteristics. This is done applying correlated
dynamic random-effects probit models and providing statistics for
protracted unemployment exposure. The analysis makes use of EU-SILC data
from 2003 to 2015 for four European countries (DK, FR, IT and UK).
Empirical results indicate that both unobserved heterogeneity and
genuine state dependence are relevant and partly independent factors in
explaining the reiteration and accumulation of unemployment and
long-term unemployment risks over time. The analysis shows how the
weight of these two components varies at both macro and micro level,
according to different labour market and institutional settings and
depending on individual endowments. Finally, the paper discusses how the
distinction between unobserved heterogeneity and genuine state
dependence and the evaluation of their possible interplay can provide
useful insights with respect to theories of cumulative advantages and
with respect to an efficient design of policy measures aimed at
contrasting the accumulation of occupational penalties over time.  
Referenti: Raffaele Guetto, Daniele Vignoli

Il seminario sara' tenuto presso l'aula 32 del DiSIA, Viale Morgagni 59,
50134 Firenze.

Tutti gli interessati sono cordialmente invitati a partecipare. 

-- 
RAFFAELE GUETTO
_University of Florence - Department of Statistics, Informatics,
Applications_
Viale Morgagni, 59 - 50134 Firenze
Tel: +39 055 2751553
Web:
https://www.disia.unifi.it/p-doc2-2017-000000-G-3f2c342938302c-0.html
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