[Forum SIS] Seminar Benedetti - Piersimoni, 25 October at University of Bologna

[Carfagna Elisabetta]

*Statistics Seminars 2018*



Thursday 25 October from 2 to 4 pm

Seminars room – Department of Statistical Sciences, first floor



“Experimental Design for Cloud Seeding”



R. Benedetti, Professor in Economic Statistics at University of
Chieti-Pescara, benedett a unich.it



F. Piersimoni, Senior Researcher at Directorate for Methodology and
Statistical Process Design, Istat, piersimo a istat.it



*Abstract:* The 2018 Atlant rainfall enhancement trial in Oman will be the
six-th of a scheduled six-year sequence of trials running since 2013, and
will be conducted in the Hajar Mountains of Oman from June to October.
Atlant is a ground-based cloud ionisation system that is assumed to enhance
the microphysical processes of precipitation formation at multiple stages
resulting in an increase in the amount of rainfall on the ground downwind
of the emitter. Specifically these apparatus aims to enhance raindrop
growth and hence is dependent on rain-bearing convective clouds suitable
for enhancement. Such conditions are frequent during the months of the
trial in the Hajar mountains. The aim of the six years of trials is to
produce statistically reliable data about the efficacy of Atlant for such
an enhancement effect in this region of Oman. This statistical evaluation
is based on a randomized experimental design with strict operational
controls, as opposed to opportunistic cloud measurements, and an extensive
set of surface level rainfall measurements and supporting meteorological
observations. Statistical modelling and analysis of rainfall data is
notoriously difficult because of the huge variability associated with,
where and when rainfall occurs. However, such a trial is possible for a
ground-based system with a well-defined downwind target area such as
Atlant, provided there are sufficient rainfall gauges spread over this area
and adequate care is taken when analysing the data obtained from these
gauges to account for the spatial and temporal variability in rainfall. The
basic objective of this sequence of rainfall enhancement trials is then to
identify whether variation in the operation of the Atlant systems leads to
statistically significant differences in rainfall in the defined area of
interest, i.e. downwind of these systems when they are operational.



Organized by

    Head of the Department

Prof. Elisabetta
Carfagna
    Prof. Angela Montanari

Elisabetta Carfagna

Full Professor of Statistics

University of Bologna

Department of Statistical Sciences

Email: elisabetta.carfagna a unibo.it

Mobile +39 329 4131226

Skype account: elisabettacarfagna

https://events.unibo.it/itacosm2017

https://eventi.unibo.it/expo2015ruralplanning

https://www.unibo.it/sitoweb/elisabetta.carfagna/en
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