[Forum SIS] Seminario Prof. Frosini 13 giugno 2017

[Dip. Scienze Statistiche - Mi]

Il Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche dell'Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore ha organizzato un seminario, presentato dal Prof. B. Vittorio FROSINI, Emerito dell'Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore di Milano, dal titolo:


Forensic Statistics: A general view



Martedì 13 Giugno dalle ore 11,30

in Aula G153



Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore - Milano

Largo Gemelli, 1

Abstract:
Introduction to the Proceedings of a meeting on Forensic Statistics, published by the Italian Association for Applied Statistics (Statistica Applicata - Italian Journal of Applied Statistics, vol. 27, N. 2 and N. 3).A general topic under discussion is devoted to Bayes' formula (or theorem): it is a fundamental device which allows the computation of probabilities of possible causes, given related information about certain effects. Strictly connected to this argument is the «fallacy of the transposed conditional», which usually implies an unwarranted assumption of guilt. These introductory topics are followed by a discussion of some main features of two causes célèbres, those of Alfred Dreyfus in France (whose law-suit was heavily burdened with many logical errors and fallacies) and of Nicola Sacco and Bartolomeo Vanzetti in U.S.A. (by making use of the extensive and keen examination, made by J.B. Kadane and D.A. Schum, of all the material drawn from the two relative suits). A discussion follows about the role and significance in trials of so-called naked statistics, which most (but not all) experts exclude from applications in trials. Then two interesting cases are presented, related to the Australian case named by Chedzey, and the one related to the English case named by Sally Clark. The final discussion is devoted to two kinds of cases which require a judgment about groups of people; the statistical methods usually applied in these cases pertain to the so-called tests of significance.
Key Words: Bayes' theorem; Fallacy of the transposed conditional; Naked statistics; Tests of significance.






Segreteria Organizzativa:
Barbara Villa
Dipartimento di Scienze statistiche
Edificio Lanzone, 18
Dip.scienzestatistiche at unicatt.it<mailto:Dip.scienzestatistiche at unicatt.it>
Tel. +39 02 7234 2647
Fax +39 02 7234 3064
http://dipartimenti.unicatt.it/scienze_statistiche


Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Largo Gemelli 1, 20123 Milano
www.unicatt.it<http://www.unicatt.it/>


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