[Forum SIS] Seminario Christophe Ley @ UniTo

[Elvira Di Nardo]

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      M.Sc. in STOCHASTICS and DATA SCIENCE
     http://www.master-sds.unito.it/do/home.pl

        UNIVERSITA' DEGLI STUDI DI TORINO
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Martedì 9 Maggio 2017 alle ore 11:30 in Aula 12 (Corso Unione Sovietica
218/bis, School of Management and Economics), nell'ambito delle attività
previste per il corso di Statistics for Stochastic Processes

            il Prof. Christophe Ley  (Ghent University, Belgio)

terrà un seminario dal titolo

An alternative ranking for national soccer teams based on strength
parameters

Abstract:
The FIFA ranking of national (male) soccer teams suffers from various
drawbacks that cause heated  debates, all-the-more  as  this  ranking
governs the seating in the international tournaments and the associated
qualification rounds. In the present paper, we propose five alternative
models based on strength parameters that are determined by maximum
likelihood estimation. We conduct a comparison of these five statistical
models, to which we add the ELO model used for the women's FIFA ranking,
on grounds of their predictive performance. Indeed, contrary to regular
league rankings, the FIFA ranking is designed to measure the current
strength of teams, hence should allow accurate predictions of future
matches. Our comparison is based on fifteen English Premier League seasons.
The best performing model is then used to build the alternative FIFA
ranking. We furthermore show its predictive power by analyzing the 2016
European Championship and comparing our predictions to the bookmaker
ratings, usually considered as golden standard.


Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.

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Elvira Di Nardo
Dept. Mathematics "G. Peano"
University of Torino
Via Carlo Alberto 10
10123 Torino, Italia
tel. +39 0116702862
fax +39 0116702878
http://www.elviradinardo.it
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