[Forum SIS] "Tor Vergata": 16 September 2014 Seminars : Francesca Dominici and Andrey L. Vasnev

[Maura Mezzetti]

CEIS-Tor Vergata is pleased to inform you that, on 
*Tuesday****September****16**^th **, **2014*Francesca Dominici and 
Andrey L. Vasnev will present:**

*at 1**1**.00*am*, *

*FRANCESCA DOMINICI <http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/francesca-dominici/> 
*(Harvard School of Public Health)

**

/“The Public Health Impact of Air Pollution and Climate Change”/

//

/Over the next century, climate change is expected to lead to an 
increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such 
as heat waves.  Climate change is also expected to impact air pollution, 
such as ozone and particulate matter. The public health impact of 
climate change is poorly understood, in part because of numerous factors 
exhibiting a wide range of uncertainty that underlies estimates of 
future health risk. To mitigate the public health consequences of 
climate change we need a comprehensive understanding of how changes in 
all of the environmental exposures will affect vulnerability in 
a changing climate.
In this talk, I will review statistical modeling for estimating the 
public health impact of air pollution and extreme heat both using 
historical data and climate change future projections. We will link and 
analyze massive data sets on weather, air pollution, health, and 
socio-demographic characteristics that are collected at different 
spatial and temporal resolution.. We will also present ongoing 
statistical modeling approaches to address the following challenges; 
1) ambient air pollution levels (e.g., ozone and particulate matter) 
will change in response to the altered meteorological conditions arising 
from climate change; and 2) the health effects of combined exposure to 
degraded air quality and heat could be more severe than expected based 
on the individual exposures (i.e., synergism).​/

//

*at 12.15*am*, *

*ANDREY L. VASNEV 
<http://sydney.edu.au/business/staff/andreyv>*(University of Sydney)

**

/“The Forecast Combination Puzzle: A Simple Theoretical Explanation”/

//

/This papers offers a theoretical explanation for the stylized fact that 
forecast combinations with estimated optimal weights often perform 
poorly in applications. The properties of the forecast combination are 
typically derived under the assumption that the weights are fixed, while 
in practice they need to be estimated. If the fact that the weights are 
random rather than fixed is taken into account during the optimality 
derivation, then the forecast combination will be biased (even when the 
original forecasts are unbiased) and its variance is larger than in the 
fixed-weights case. In particular, there is no guarantee that the 
‘optimal’ forecast combination will be better than the equal-weights 
case or even improve on the original forecasts. We provide the 
underlying theory, some special cases and an application in the context 
of model selection. ​/

//

The Seminar will be held at the Faculty of Economics, University of Rome 
"Tor Vergata", B-building, 1° floor, room B

Please, go to www.ceistorvergata.it <http://www.ceistorvergata.it> for 
the complete list of seminars and events at CEIS.

How to reach us: http://web.uniroma2.it/mobilita/index.html 
http://www.economia.uniroma2.it/area.asp?a=867




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