[Forum SIS] DEC Statistics Seminar - March 27th

[Raffaella Piccarreta]

Dear all, 

we are glad to announce the following DEC seminar 



Thursday, March 27th 
Università Bocconi, 
Room 3-E4-SR03 
Via Rontgen 1 - 3rd floor 
Time: 12:30pm 

Bruno Sansò 
(University of California Santa Cruz) 


Blending and assessing climate model projections 


Abstract 
We consider the problem of forecasting future regional climate. Our 
method is based on blending different members of an ensemble of 
regional climate model (RCM) simulations while accounting for the 
discrepancies between these simulations, under present day 
conditions, and observational records for the recent past. We 
develop Bayesian space-time models that assess the discrepancies 
between climate model simulations and observational records. Those 
discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain blended 
forecasts of 21st century climate. The model allows for 
location-dependent spatial heterogeneities, providing local 
comparisons between the different simulations. Additionally, we 
estimate the different modes of spatial variability, and use the 
climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for 
comparisons. We focus on regional climate model simulations 
performed in the context of the North American Regional Climate 
Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). 





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The DEC seminar schedule is available at http://www.unibocconi.eu/statseminar 




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Raffaella Piccarreta 
DEC - Department of Decision Sciences, 
Universita' L.Bocconi, via Guglielmo Röntgen 1 (3rd floor, room D1-09). 20136, Milano. 
email: piccarreta a unibocconi.it 
tel. +39-02-58365659 / fax +39-02-58365630 

Web page (ENGLISH VERSION): http://faculty.unibocconi.eu/raffaellapiccarreta/ 
(ITALIAN VERSION): http://faculty.unibocconi.it/raffaellapiccarreta/ 
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