[Forum SIS] seminario Zhuang Jiancang a Milano

[Elisa Varini]

ANNUNCIO DI SEMINARIO

venerdì  13 giugno 2014, ore 14:30
Sala Bassini, Piano Terra
CNR – IMATI, Via Bassini 15, Milano


RELATORE
Dr ZHUANG Jiancang
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo

TITOLO
Testing significance of earthquake precursors against earthquake 
clustering models instead of against complete randomness

ABSTRACT
During the last 30 years, a number of algorithms have been 
developed that search for seismic anomalies in order to predict 
strong earthquakes. Examples of such algorithms are M8, RTP, RTL, 
PI, and LURR. In these algorithms, behaviour is usually deemed 
to be anomalous if seismicity rates change from the background 
activity, which is usually assumed stationary or, more strongly, 
a Poisson process. On the other hand, it is well known that 
seismicity is clustered and can be well described by the Epidemic-Type
Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. Such anomalies detected in these
conventional ways may be caused by earthquake clusters or improper
declustering algorithms. This presentation illustrates, through 
examples, how to modify these algorithms for the testing of 
seismic anomalies against a clustering model (e.g., the ETAS model).

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Elisa Varini
CNR   - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
IMATI - Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche
via Bassini 15 - 20133 Milano (Italy)
Tel +39 02 23699 527
Fax +39 02 23699 538
Email elisa at mi.imati.cnr.it
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