[Forum SIS] seminario prof Zhuang Jiancang (ISM, Tokyo)

[Elisa Varini]

ANNUNCIO DI SEMINARIO

venerdì  13 giugno 2014, ore 14:30
Sala Bassini, Piano Terra
CNR – IMATI, Via Bassini 15, Milano


RELATORE
Dr ZHUANG Jiancang
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo

TITOLO
Testing significance of earthquake precursors against earthquake
clustering models instead of against complete randomness


ABSTRACT
During the last 30 years, a number of algorithms have been developed
that search for seismic anomalies in order to predict strong earthquakes.
Examples of such algorithms are M8, RTP, RTL, PI, and LURR. 
In these algorithms, behaviour is usually deemed to be anomalous 
if seismicity rates change from the background activity, which is 
usually assumed stationary or, more strongly, a Poisson process. 
On the other hand, it is well known that seismicity is clustered and 
can be well described by the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) 
model. Such anomalies detected in these conventional ways may be caused 
by earthquake clusters or improper declustering algorithms. 
This presentation illustrates, through examples, how to modify these 
algorithms for the testing of seismic anomalies against a clustering model 
(e.g., the ETAS model).


-- 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Elisa Varini
CNR   - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
IMATI - Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche
via Bassini 15 - 20133 Milano (Italy)
Tel +39 02 23699 527
Fax +39 02 23699 538
Email elisa at mi.imati.cnr.it
-------------------------------------------------------------------