[Forum SIS] seminario il 19 Dicembre al CNR-IMATI

[Antonella Bodini]

Venerdi 19 dicembre, alle ore 11, presso la sede di Milano dell'IMATI
Via Bassini 15, nella Sala Pentagonale al secondo piano,

*Ting Wang* (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of
Otago, New Zealand)

presentera' un seminario dal titolo

Modelling of seismic activity using Markov-modulated Hawkes process and
its extensions.

Abstract:

Earthquakes are processes in which the internal workings are only
observed indirectly, although
the final effects are all too observable! Hidden Markov models (HMMs, a
general statistical
framework for modelling partially observed systems) are an intuitively
attractive idea for analysing
seismicity.
I will introduce the Markov-modulated Hawkes process that we developed
for investigating long-term
patterns in seismicity rate. The catalogue of the Landers earthquake
sequence, which
included multiple mainshocks, was used as a case study. I will show how
this model captures the
cyclic parent-generating-offspring feature of the temporal behaviour of
earthquakes. I will also
discuss our current work on extending this temporal model by including
spatial variation of the
seismic activity and the earthquake magnitude. Our aim is to categorize
spatiotemporal seismic
hazards holistically, using the entire earthquake record in a selected
region to identify patterns
correlated with subsequent large earthquakes, rather than the
traditional way of hunting for
individual foreshocks.


Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.


Cordiali saluti,
Antonella.

-- 
Dott. Antonella Bodini 					
CNR-Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche					
Via Bassini 15, 20133 Milano (Italy)	  		  					

tel   +39 02 23699524
fax   +39 02 23699538 
http://www.mi.imati.cnr.it/~anto/
                          

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