[Forum SIS] Seminario

[Francesca De Battisti (francesca.debattisti)]

Martedì 15 ottobre 2013 
 
M. Nazrul Islam (Shahjalal University of Science and Technology - Bangladesh) terrà il seminario dal titolo:
 
 
 
“Measuring Aging as a Function of Population Momentum: An Application with Bangladesh Population”
 
 
 
presso la Facoltà di Scienze Politiche, Economiche e Sociali dell’Università degli studi di Milano (aula seminari DEMM, via Conservatorio 7). 
 
 
 
Il seminario è programmato dalle ore 12.30 alle ore 14.00 circa. 
 
 
 
Abstract 
 
Aging through population momentum reflects the degree of aging in the long term. It is now established that Bangladeshi population will become old in the coming decades. This article has tried to find out population aging measure with population momentum. This approach has been applied to project future extent of demographic aging in Bangladesh. The mean age of population will be increased by 20 years during the transition from stable population (assumed at 2001) to stationary. Measures of aging through momentum vary among the formulae under different assumptions on momentum calculation. Findings indicate that measure based on Keyfitz’s formula on population momentum along with the relaxation of assumption of stable growth in it reveals good results and these are matched with aging measures with medium variant population projection data whereas measures of momentum with ratio of the proportion under age 30 in the initial population to that in the ultimate stationary population (F30) and ratio of the proportion over age 60 in the initial population to that in the ultimate stationary population (F60) are weak. Again, the average age of population will be increased by 30 years considering delay drop of fertility to replacement level by 10 years. A similar type of increase in mean age (31 years) is found with the assumption of fast speed of fertility decline. Therefore, an inevitable future aging of Bangladesh has been observed with all the measures of aging through population momentum.
 
 
 
Authors 
 
M. Nazrul Islam, Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet-3114, Bangladesh
 
Email: nazrul330 at yahoo.com
 
&
 
Dilip C. Nath, Professor, Department of Statistics, Gauhati University, Guwahati-781014, Assam, India
 
Email: dilipc.nath at gmail.com
 
 
 
 
 
Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.
 
 

 
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Francesca De Battisti
Dipartimento di Economia, Management e Metodi Quantitativi 
(III piano, studio n. 29)
Via Conservatorio 7
20122 - Milano
Tel: 02.50321464
Fax: 02.50321505
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