[Forum SIS] Seminario CHRISTEN

[Matteo Ruggiero]

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CICLO DI SEMINARI - COLLEGIO CARLO ALBERTO
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Nell'ambito del ciclo di seminari organizzato dalla "de Castro Statistics Initiative" (www.carloalberto.org/stats), 
alle ore 12.00 di Giovedi' 10 Novembre 2011, presso la Sala Rossa del Collegio Carlo Alberto, 
via Real Collegio 30, 10024, Moncalieri, Torino,

ANDRÉS CHRISTEN  (CIMAT, México)

terra' un seminario dal titolo 

TOWARDS UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION AND INFERENCE IN THE STOCHASTIC SIR EPIDEMIC MODEL

Abstract:
We introduce a novel method to conduct inference with models defined through a continuous-time Markov process, and we apply these results to a classical stochastic SIR model as a case study. We obtain approximations for first and second moments for the state variables. These approximate moments are in turn matched to the moments of an inputed generic discrete distribution aimed at generating an approximate likelihood that is valid both for low count or high count data.  We conduct a full Bayesian inference to estimate epidemic parameters using informative priors. Excellent estimations and  predictions are obtained both in a synthetic data scenario and in two Dengue fever case studies.


Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.

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Matteo Ruggiero
University of Turin
http://web.econ.unito.it/ruggiero

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