[Forum SIS] Bocconi DEC Seminar: Philip Dawid - May 26th

[anna.simoni a unibocconi.it]

Dear colleagues,

The Department of Decision Sciences (DEC) of Bocconi University is pleased to invite you to the seminar:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DEC Seminar
Università Bocconi
Room 3-E4-SR03
Via Rontgen 1 - 3rd floor
Time: 12:30pm

The DEC seminar schedule is available at http://www.unibocconi.eu/statseminar

Thursday, May 26th

Philip Dawid
(University of Cambridge)

"Local Proper Scoring Rules"

Abstract:
A scoring rule S(x, Q) measures the quality of a quoted distribution Q for an uncertain quantity X in the light of the realised value x of X.  It is proper when it encourages honesty, i.e, when, if your uncertainty about X is represented by a distribution P, the choice Q = P minimises your expected loss. Traditionally, a scoring rule has been called local if it depends on Q only through q(x), the density of Q at x.  The only proper local scoring rule is then the log-score, -log q(x).  For the continuous case, we can weaken the definition of locality to allow dependence on a finite number m of derivatives of q at x.  A characterisation is given of such order-m local proper scoring rules, and their behaviour under transformations of the outcome space. In particular, any m-local scoring rule with m > 0 can be computed without knowledge of the normalising constant of the density.  Parallel results for discrete spaces will be given.

==============================================================================
 
Sincerely,
Anna Simoni


---------------------------
Anna Simoni

Assistant Professor
Department of Decision Sciences
Università Bocconi
via Roentgen, 1
20136 Milano - Italy

Email:anna.simoni a unibocconi.it
Webpage: http://faculty.unibocconi.eu/annasimoni/

---
Il messaggio che segue e' inserito automaticamente dal server di posta
dell'Universita' Bocconi.

Il 5 per mille a favore degli studenti piu' brillanti.
Sostieni la nostra capacita' di attrarre talento e promuovere il
merito attraverso l'istituzione di borse di studio.
E' un atto volontario, non costa nulla e non sostituisce l'8 per mille.
Scegli Bocconi: codice fiscale 80024610158. Grazie.

Please note that the above message is addressed only to individuals
filing Italian income tax returns.
---