[Forum SIS] Seminario ARPINO

[Matteo Ruggiero]

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		                 AVVISO DI SEMINARIO
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Martedi' 22 Marzo 2011, alle ore 14.00
presso il Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Metodi Quantitativi dell'Universita' di Pavia, 
via San Felice 5, Pavia, aula del Consiglio di Facolta' (primo piano)


BRUNO ARPINO  (Dipartimento di Scienze delle Decisioni, Universita' Bocconi)


terra' un seminario dal titolo


CAUSAL INFERENCE FOR MULTILEVEL OBSERVATIONAL DATA: ESTIMATING THE EFFECT OF FERTILITY ON POVERTY



Abstract


This paper addresses some statistical issues arising in studies of causal inference with observational hierarchical data using the problem of estimating the effect of fertility on poverty as an illustrative example. In the application the multilevel dimension introduces statistical complications and stimulates interesting research questions. From a methodological point of view, I identify and discuss four issues that are not tied to the proposed application but have a general relevance: the role of clusters in the assignment mechanism; the non independence of units within clusters; the cross-level treatment-cluster interaction; the potential violation of Stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA). The paper proposes combinations of matching methods and multilevel modelling techniques and a weaker version of the SUTVA assumption. I find a negative and substantial effect of fertility on wellbeing; this effect is stronger in high-level fertility communities.


Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.


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Matteo Ruggiero
University of Pavia
http://economia.unipv.it/ruggiero


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