no subject (file transmission)

[Renata Rotondi <reni@iami.mi.cnr.it>]

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=                         C.N.R. - I.A.M.I.                           =
=  Istituto per le Applicazioni della Matematica e dell'Informatica   =
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Si comunica che da lunedi` 16 a venerdi` 20 Settembre 1996, dalle ore 14
alle ore 16, il professor Peter Walley, Department of Mathematics,
University of Western Australia, terra`, presso la sede del C.N.R. 
(via Ampere 56, Milano) aula A, un ciclo di lezioni su:

 A General Theory of Probabilistic Reasoning and Statistical Inference

Summary: There are many theories of probabilistic and statistical reasoning,
including theories of qualitative (comparative) probability, Bayesian
inference, Bayesian sensitivity analysis or "robust Bayes", the
Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions, possibility theory (fuzzy
logic), and various theories of upper and lower probability. All these
theories will be discussed in this course.  Each of them is useful in some
applications but none of them is generally applicable.  This course will
present a more general theory of probabilistic reasoning which uses upper
and lower previsions, or equivalent models, to model partial ignorance.
The general theory is based on principles of coherence, which characterize
consistency of probability models, and natural extension, which is used to
calculate inferences.  In some respects it is a generalisation of de 
Finetti's theory of linear prevision.
The first half of the course will outline the mathematical foundations of
the theory, as in my monograph "Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise
Probabilities" (Chapman and Hall, 1991).  The second half of the course
will survey some more recent work, especially concerning robust Bayesian
models and other methods of coherent statistical inference. Depending on
the interests of the audience, topics may include: how to make money
(without risk!) from risky investments on financial markets or horse
racing; "noninformative" priors and other models for ignorance; rules for
updating probabilities; the incoherence of Neyman-Pearson theory; the
analysis of multinomial data and contingency tables; medical statistics and
the ethics of randomised clinical trials; possibility theory and fuzzy
logic; hierarchical models; combining expert opinions; and decision making.


Con l'invito ad intervenire, La prego di dare la piu` ampia diffusione
al presente annuncio.


                                      Il Direttore dello IAMI

                                      Eugenio Regazzini

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Per informazioni rivolgersi a:
Renata Rotondi
Istituto per le Applicazioni della Matematica e dell'Informatica
Via Ampere, 56
20131 Milano
reni@iami.mi.cnr.it
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