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Programma workshop 10-14 giugno
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CON PREGHIERA DI DIFFUSIONE. Grazie!
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STATISTICAL MODELLING AND INFERENCE FOR
THE PREDICTION OF AIDS EPIDEMIC
Rome, 10-14 June 1996
During the year dedicated to "Advances in Mathematical Statistics
and Applications" a workshop will take place in Rome at the Isti-
tuto per le Applicazioni del Calcolo "M. Picone", IAC-CNR.
The workshop aims at creating a forum of discussion about the
state of the art of the statistical aspects related to the study
and the forecast of the HIV epidemic. Relevant epidemiological
topics with innovative statistical contents will be enhanced.
Scope of the workshop is to pinpoint new research fields and open
problems and stimulate research partnerships. Ample space will be
devoted to informal communications by the participants and to
open discussions. In particular Wednesday afternoon session will
be left for those participants wishing to discuss their works
with some of the invited speakers.
The official language is English.
Participation to the workshop is open and free, however partici-
pants are asked to inform (not later than June 1st, 1996) the Or-
ganising Committee via:
* e-mail: silveri@iac.rm.cnr.it
* fax: (+39)-6-4404306
* mail: Anno di Studio IAC 1996
Viale del Policlinico 137 - 00161 Roma (Italy).
Those who intend to present a communication are also required to
send the title and a short abstract.
The Scientific and Organising Committee:
Patrizia Ciarlini e Anna Gigli (IAC), Arnoldo Frigessi (Univ.
Roma III and IAC), Carla Rossi (Univ. Roma II and Osservatorio
Regionale del Lazio), Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba (Univ. Roma I),
Arduino Verdecchia (Istituto Superiore della Sanita').
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * Programme * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Monday 10
10:00 -- Odd. O. Aalen (Oslo): "A Markov model for AIDS backcal-
culation, using times of HIV diagnosis in
addition to times of AIDS diagnosis.
Application to AIDS prediction in England
and Wales"
11:00 -- coffee break
11.30 -- Wally Gilks (Cambridge): "A Bayesian approach to back-
calculation" Part 1: methodology
12.30 -- Daniela De Angelis (Cambridge): "A Bayesian approach to
backcalculation" Part 2: model assessment
and elaboration
13:30 -- break
15:00 -- Arduino Verdecchia (ISS, Roma): "A role of age, suscep-
tible population, competitive non-AIDS
mortality on backcalculation estimates of
HIV infections"
15:30 -- coffee break
16:00 -- Tamiza Parpia (Edinburgh): "Modelling HIV disease pro-
gression in Scotland using population
based immunological data"
16.30 -- Angela Seeber (ISS, Roma): "Relation between time to
AIDS or death and CD4 response to treat-
ment"
Tuesday 11
09:30 -- Glen Satten (Atlanta): "Analyzing interval censored da-
ta from AIDS studies"
10.30 -- coffee break
11:00 -- Glen Satten: "Analyzing interval censored data from
AIDS studies" (ctd)
12:00 -- Odd O. Aalen: "Further analysis of the Markov model for
backcalculation: penalized likelihood esti-
mation. Sensitivity analysis"
13:00 -- break
14:30 -- Ellen Amundsen (Oslo): "Modeling the HIV/AIDS epidemic
in Norway with focus on HIV test information"
15:00 -- Anna Gigli (IAC, Roma): "The contribution of AIDS incu-
bation time to the uncertainty of backcal-
culation estimates: preliminary results
from a bootstrap application to Italian
data"
15:30 -- coffee break
16:00 -- Ingrid Glad (Oslo): "Bayesian backcalculation with HIV
seropositivity notifications"
Wednesday 12
09:30 -- Edward Kaplan (Yale): "Snapshot sample estimates of re-
cent HIV incidence"
10:30 -- coffee break
11:00 -- Sylvia Richardson (Paris): "Bayesian modelling of a
marker of HIV progression by a hidden
Markov model"
12:00 -- Carla Rossi (Roma II,Roma): "E-M estimation for HIV/AIDS
long survivors"
12:30 -- Sabrina Barcherini (ISS, Roma): "Geographical distribu-
tion of HIV infection in Italy"
13:00 -- break
14:30-16:30 open discussion
Thursday 13
09.30 -- Sylvia Richardson: "Timing of mother-to-child HIV-1
transmission: a Bayesian estimation"
10:30 -- coffee break
11:00 -- Gillian M. Raab (Edinburgh): "Predicting the AIDS epi-
demic in Scotland using MCMC methods"
11:30 -- Shuying Yang (Edinburgh): "Elicitation of prior distri-
bution for incubation distribution in
AIDS prediction"
12:00 -- Simon K. Jones (Southampton): "Modelling the provision
of Home Care to persons with AIDS"
12:30 -- Simon K. Jones: "Development and use of semi-Markov
models for health care"
13:00 -- break
14:30 -- Carlo Berzuini (Pavia): "Using dynamic models for pre-
dicting time to AIDS onset in HIV
vertically infected children"
15:00 -- Giuseppe Schinaia (Roma I, Roma): "Parameter estimates
for a comportamental model of HIV/AIDS
epidemic: an application to Italian re-
gional data"
15:30 -- coffee break
16:00 -- Massimo Arca' (OERL, Roma): "Sensitivity analysis of a
deterministic model for the HIV/AIDS
epidemic"
16:30 -- Enzo Ballone (Chieti): "Discriminant analysis method
for classification of HIV infection"
Friday 14
09:30 -- Patrizio Pezzotti (ISS, Roma): "Some neglected aspects
in HIV statistical modelling"
10:00 -- Patrizia Grossi (ISS, Roma): "The impact of the 1993
revision of the AIDS case definition
on backcalculation estimates"
10:30 -- coffee break
11:00-12:30 panel discussion chaired by Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba
(La Sapienza, Roma)